Sun and Darkness

Tense

I’ve been meaning to post about this, because it’s an important story that is getting little play in the corporate media or major blogs…

Tensions have been building between Colombia and Venezuela, and it could easily explode into a serious crisis. As reported by Agence France-Presse, on Monday:

ecuador has severed diplomatic ties with colombia and venezuela expelled all colombian diplomats in an escalating regional crisis sparked by a cross-border expedition against marxist rebels.

The diplomatic moves came as Colombia accused both its neighbours on Monday of colluding with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) — which has been waging a four-decade guerrilla war against the government in Bogota.

Ecuador angrily rejected the allegations and severed diplomatic relations, citing “a succession of events and unfriendly accusations”.

Bogota said computer records seized from a FARC camp inside Ecuador proved the allegations of collusion, and said it would present the evidence to the United Nations and the Organization of American States (OAS), due to meet on the matter on Tuesday.

Colombia’s cross-border raid on the rebel camp on Saturday, which killed FARC’s number two commander Raul Reyes, triggered the current crisis with Venezuela and Ecuador responding by massing troops on their borders with Colombia.

But it’s worse than that. Agence France-Presse also had this:

venezuela and ecuador moved their armies to the colombian border and bolted down their embassies in bogota, as tensions soared over colombia’s cross-lie alongside stroke of luck of a top colombian farc mutiny in ecuador.

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez said Sunday he was sending troops, tanks and fighter aircraft to his country’s border with Colombia, a move the White House called an “odd reaction” to Colombia’s fight against what the US government deems “a terrorist organization.”

I’m no fan of Hugo Chavez, but there’s nothing odd about Venezuela arming its border after a hostile neighbor sent troops across the border of a Venezuelan ally. What it is, however, is dangerous. Troops on the border, diplomatic relations severed, and trade sputtering to a halt.

an indignant ecuador government complained that saturday’s raid violated its territorial sovereignty, and also recalled its ambassador to bogota, warning that colombia’s actions might result in “ultimate consequences.”

Correa also canceled a visit to Cuba to deal with the crisis at home, while Ecuador’s foreign ministry lodged a formal protest with Bogota.

Colombia, for its part, insisted Sunday it did not violate Ecuador’s sovereignty, because the military operation was taken for “legitimate defense.”

And here’s the fun part: Colombia’s hard right government is one of the Bush Administration’s favorites; the left wing governments of Venezuela and Ecuador are not; and Venezuela is the most militarily powerful of the three. Should war break out, Colombia could be overwhelmed. Now, thanks to Bush’s disasters in Afghanistan and Iraq, our own military readiness has been damaged, and we really don’t have to resources to be helping Colombia in a war. One would think that would mean Bush wouldn’t try to interfere, should war break out. But that assumes Bush is capable of thought.

What’s clear, however, is that Bush, as usual, will be in no position to offer leadership in trying to mediate a peaceful resolution. And Colombia today is accusing Chavez of helping fund FARC. But Frank Bajak, of the Associated Press, thinks the tough talk is mostly posturing:

but there is little appetency for armed conflict in the part despite chavez’s recent purchases of $3 billion in russian arms, including 53 military helicopters, 100,000 kalashnikov rifles and 24 su-30 sukhoi fighter jets.

The economic costs, to begin with, are far too high.

Too many people depend on cross-border trade worth $5 billion a year, most of it Colombian exports sorely needed by Venezuelans already suffering milk and meat shortages. Ecuador depends on some $1.8 billion in trade with Colombia.

And militarily, Colombia has become a formidable foe, thanks in large part to $5 billion in aid from Washington since 2000. U.S. military advisers are sprinkled throughout Colombia’s military, and Washington could quickly ramp up support if war broke out.

Chavez’s critics say his saber-rattling is intended to deflect attention from mounting domestic

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